THE BIG PICTURE
This is the chart of the FTSE 100 UK Index
This is the Dow Jones.
This is the SP500
All three of the above charts show the "Bigger Picture" that I am arguing for. It seems remarkable that if you look at all three, the start of the crash shows all three making a "Descending Broadening Wedge" formation (perfectly). I am arguing that this formation, with 5 internal points be counted as a 1 down (red count). The rest as follows is 2 and 3, thus this rally we are seeing is a 4!
I am interested to hear what other Elliot Wave theorists make of this analysis, because I have yet to find someone who has been able to pick up on this pattern in all three markets. This pattern suggests to me that this move down is in fact a 5 wave (red count) big A.
So the expected decline will break the march lows, but perhaps not as far as expected by the permabears, and then we will have another big rally to make the big B, followed by one more fall to make a big C, completing the correction for this bear market. This possibility to me seems increasingly realistic, as it would allow for plenty of downside room for the big C.
RECENT ACTION
This is the recent FTSE activity.
This is the recent Dow Jones.
This is the recent SP500.
Now these three chars also have an interesting pattern, they all look like there is the possibility of an "Ascending Broadening Wedge", marked by a purple count on each chart. This also leave the possibility that the Dow and SP will push up once more towards the 50% retracement level of my argued wave 3 (red count). FTSE on the other hand looks more complete, so perhaps some sort of double top if the other two play out according to the purple count. FTSE has already hit and found trouble at the 50% retracement.
The other possibility that I consider is that the tops are in, and that the green counts will unwind in the early days of next week. There is a case that the red lines of resistance on Dow and SP will not be broken (with Dow there is also a cluster of resistance and the 50% retracement). However, looking at the Friday rallies for Dow and SP, they look particularly strong from a candlestick point of view compared to FTSE, this makes me think that the purple count is still a valid option.
I hope these charts have given you an alternative view that proves interesting. As Roy used to always say, "keep an open mind" so I am trying my best.
Please let me know what you think.
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