I thought it was about time I made another Weekend Review, mainly for the reason that I am finally looking to make my first trade on Monday and I will be going SHORT.
Take a look at these charts. First the FTSE. This too me looks like it has topped, with wave “c” being a perfect projection of wave “a” with fib extension levels. I think its pretty unquestionable that the fib. Levels have worked perfectly. Retrace to 61.8%, and then a perfect 161.8% projection!
You may also notice that in my last “weekend review” I was arguing for an expanding wedge formation in all major indexes, it seems that I was correct with this analysis.
I will be looking to short this market with a stop loss above the most recent highs. Even looking at the candlesticks, this market looks like it has hit some REAL resistance. If the bearish scenario does play out as planned, a key level for the FTSE to break will be 4500 (just above), which is the top of wave “a”, this will really serve as a confirmation that the pattern is complete, otherwise we could be looking at a 4 retracement, with a 5 making a higher high, suggesting to me that the bear market is over! (but I think this unlikely)
However, the headache I have is the internal wave count. If you look, you can obviously see that what I thought was a 3 is now the shortest of the impulsive waves, contradicting the purple count...
so where from here. Well, a possibility is that purple 3 and 4 are just 1 and 2 of wave 3.
Another idea is that it isn’t a 5 wave structure, but an abc-abc to make a double zig-zag “c”.
What are your views?
I think the top looks too convincing to me right now, we have a MACD sell signal with divergence, we have a perfect Fib extension hit, and we have it hit perfectly the top of my expanding wedge. Is this really all coincidence?
Looking at the Dow, we haven’t got the fib extension like the FTSE, but we have a perfect 50% retracement of the bigger picture wave 3! (what I argue is wave 3). We have a perfect touch of the top of the expanding wedge, and we finish with a MACD Sell Signal with Bearish Divergence!
I think next week, the markets are going to be painted blood red.
What do you think?
-
5 comments:
You are correct in you analysis but off on your timing. Patience. We're close to the decline. Watch 1035. That's the key. A close below 1035 is your signal to go short. Go to short too soon and you will become acquainted with a "short squeeze". Good luck on your trading!
Awful just awful
The world of finance needs new inovative ways in the field on Technical analysis, especially young brains as yours... dont let
antiquated examplamples of the past brainwash and spoil what a clear mind can accomplish. There is a better way..
GOOD LUCK... Hector
U idiot in wave C wave 3 looks like the shortest on ur FTSE chart....Learn the basic rules first dude....
Good job so far on your counts. They agree with my own, and diverge a bit from Prechter's 1, down, 2, up. We have Waves 3 and 4 labeled the same. My labels came from the character of the waves experienced while trading at the time and I'm not a big proponent of the "alternative" label gimmicks going on with other sites. Keep up the good work. You have learned a very lot, in a short period.
Post a Comment